Rates are rising and prices will have to follow: the opportunity for buyers

Mortgages in France are becoming more expensive again. In October, the average rate on new loans reached 3.49%, up from 3.40% in September, according to the Crédit Logement/CSA observatory: 24 basis points more since June. In early November, brokers report average rates of between 3.6% and 3.8% over 20 years (3.61% at CAFPI, 3.76% at Pretto), and banks' rate grids generally exceed 4%, according to Meilleurtaux. For many borrowers, the 4% mark has already been passed.

Banks are sorting applications

Banks have not turned off the tap, they are rationing it. According to Meilleurtaux, the large national banks are tightening their conditions more than the regional banks, which are still looking for customers. A rate discount now has to be earned: deposit, savings left after the purchase, stability and prospects of income. The best profiles still obtain around 3.25% over 20 years at CAFPI; tighter applications run into the 35% debt-to-income cap, insurance included, set by France's High Council for Financial Stability (HCSF).

The Crédit Logement/CSA figures reflect this strain: lending volumes are down 0.8% over three months, and almost one loan in two (49.3%) is now granted over 25 years or more, a sign that borrowers are stretching the term to keep monthly payments manageable.

Why prices will have to fall

Buyers think in monthly payments. With €1,000 a month over 20 years, a buyer could borrow €178,700 at 3.1%, the average rate in summer 2025 according to the Banque de France. At 3.8%, the same buyer can only borrow €167,900. That is six per cent less purchasing power, without the property having changed. Faced with buyers who can no longer keep up, sellers have only two options: wait, or lower their price.

The last cycle showed it. Between the end of 2021 and the end of 2023, the average rate rose from 1.06% to 4.20% (Crédit Logement/CSA): for the same monthly payment, a quarter of borrowing capacity disappeared. Prices of existing homes followed, falling 3.9% year on year at the end of 2023, then 5.2% in the first quarter of 2024 (Notaires-Insee indices).

The first signs are already here. In the second quarter of 2026, prices of existing homes fell 1% over the quarter and 0.8% over a year (Insee). Properties are taking longer to sell, 101 days on average according to the Laforêt network, six more than a year ago, and nine sales in ten are concluded after negotiation, with an average discount of 4.8%. Notaries expect near stability at national level, while some economists foresee a fall of 10% or more: the scale will vary from one city to another. Our reading: as long as credit stays at this level, the pressure is downwards, and it is the seller who has to compromise.

The price is fixed for life, the rate can be renegotiated

This asymmetry changes everything. The purchase price is written into the deed of sale: it will never change, and it also sets the notary fees and the amount to be financed. The rate, on the other hand, is only a financing condition. If it falls in a few years, the loan can be renegotiated with your bank or taken over by another one. If it rises further, your fixed rate protects you. A buyer can therefore correct a rate that is too high; they can never correct a price that was too high.

Two buyers, the same flat

Take a flat bought for €210,000 in summer 2025 and financed at 3.1% over 20 years. A second buyer purchases an equivalent flat today, 5% cheaper thanks to negotiation, at €199,500, but borrows at 3.8%. Both borrow the amount of the price; the figures exclude insurance.

• Without renegotiation, the second buyer pays €13 more a month (€1,188 instead of €1,175), or €3,075 more over twenty years, from which around €800 of notary fees saved on a lower price should be deducted.
• If rates return to 3.1% in four years and the loan is renegotiated, paying the legal maximum in penalties (€3,244), the monthly payment falls to €1,150, €25 less than the first buyer's, and the loan costs €4,153 less in total.
• The first buyer, meanwhile, will never renegotiate the extra €10,500 paid.

How to make the most of it

1. 1Prepare your application before you start looking: deposit, savings left after the purchase, well-kept accounts, stable income. This is what opens the door to the best rates.
2. 2Make banks compete, including regional banks, which remain keener than the large networks.
3. 3Negotiate the price, not just the rate: when selling times lengthen, a well-argued offer (works, energy rating, prices of comparable sales) carries more weight than a year ago.
4. 4Reason in net yield and monthly payments at today's rate, and count any future fall as a bonus.
5. 5Prepare the renegotiation from the loan offer: check the early repayment penalties and negotiate a reduction where possible.